World trade performance could improve in the second quarter

While world trade volumes remained low in the first quarter, forecasts for the second quarter point to a slight improvement, although this would not be free of instability, particularly in the financial sector. 

This improvement is linked to the continued rise in export orders.

With these data, the forecast for 2023, according to the WTO, is for moderate growth of only 1.7%, which is lower than in 2022, when the volume of world trade grew by 2.7% and the forecast was 3.5%. High commodity prices, tightening monetary policy in response to inflation, the lingering effects of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions were the main factors affecting trade and output in 2022. 

The same is likely to be true for 2023, with the addition of the impact of interest rate rises. However, one positive change for 2023 is the easing of control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic in China, which will free up demand for consumer goods and boost international trade. This could partly offset the negative impact of interest rate hikes in developed economies, which are highlighting weaknesses in banking systems that, if not addressed, could lead to further instability.